The impact of oil price fluctuations on the size of the major economic sectors : standard study for the horizons 2030

Abstract EN

Although it was previously the concern of economists and governments across the world, the oil prices fluctuation impact heavily the economies of exporting countries and remains a hot debating topic.

The vulnerability of the Algerian economy to external shocks, especially those linked to oil prices direct researcher to the long standing debate of economic diversification which is becoming the main challenge in the country's overall economic policy.

This work will be devoted to examining the correlation and relationship between some economic sectors outputs, GDP and oil prices volatility in the short and medium term basing on annual data extracted from the Algerian context during the period starting from 1980 using CPA and the VAR econometric model.

Our research reveals the existence of a delayed and wrapped impact between the fluctuating oil prices and the contribution of economic sectors to the overall GDP.

The findings help into identifying, for the perspectives of 2030, the precarious, most affected, and least sensitive economic sectors in term of impact received following oil prices fluctuation which should assist the government to better narrow and focus the current diversification models and program aiming optimized outcomes notably in sectors such as agriculture and industry.