دراسة قياسية لأثر تقلبات أسعار النفط على الواردات بالجزائر خلال الفترة 1975-2015

Abstract EN

This study aims to diagnosing the situation of the Algeria economy and examining it impact on the collapse of oil price, by measuring the impact of this fluctuation on imports using a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) models, based on annual data covering (1975-2015) period.

This study found that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between the two variables, in addition there is a causal relationship in one direction between them from the oil price to the imports.

As the result showed that a positive shock in oil prices estimated at 1% or one US dollar would cause an impact in the importsat the beginning of the response period, this indicates that imports in Algeria are largely linked to fluctuations in oil prices in global markets