Application of AR Model in the Analysis of Preearthquake Ionospheric Anomalies

Abstract EN

Earthquake ionosphere coupling phenomenon is one of the hot research topics using the Global Positioning System (GPS).

Taking Lushan earthquake in April 2013 as an example, this paper firstly establishes ionosphere TEC models and determines the optimal model based on Autoregression model by analyzing the TEC values of the epicenter area detected by GPS.

Then it makes predictions about the ionosphere data, obtains the background value, and conducts anomaly analysis by using the optimal model.

Finally the correlation between ionosphere anomalies and earthquake is analyzed quantitatively by presenting data diagrams explicitly; then a new method to do short-term and imminent earthquake prediction is proposed in the end.