Time-Dependent Reliability Modeling and Analysis Method for Mechanics Based on Convex Process

Abstract EN

The objective of the present study is to evaluate the time-dependent reliability for dynamic mechanics with insufficient time-varying uncertainty information.

In this paper, the nonprobabilistic convex process model, which contains autocorrelation and cross-correlation, is firstly employed for the quantitative assessment of the time-variant uncertainty in structural performance characteristics.

By combination of the set-theory method and the regularization treatment, the time-varying properties of structural limit state are determined and a standard convex process with autocorrelation for describing the limit state is formulated.

By virtue of the classical first-passage method in random process theory, a new nonprobabilistic measure index of time-dependent reliability is proposed and its solution strategy is mathematically conducted.

Furthermore, the Monte-Carlo simulation method is also discussed to illustrate the feasibility and accuracy of the developed approach.

Three engineering cases clearly demonstrate that the proposed method may provide a reasonable and more efficient way to estimate structural safety than Monte-Carlo simulations throughout a product life-cycle.