Capturing the Data Uncertainty Change in the Cocaine Consumption in Spain Using an Epidemiologically Based Model

Abstract EN

A probabilistic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the cocaine consumption in Spain during the period of 1995–2011.

Using the so-called probabilistic fitting technique, we study if the model is able to capture the data uncertainty coming from surveys.

The proposed model is formulated through a nonlinear system of difference equations whose coefficients are treated as stochastic processes.

A discussion regarding the usefulness and limitations of probabilistic fitting technique in order to capture the data uncertainty of the proposed model is presented.