Prediction of Frost Occurrences Using Statistical Modeling Approaches
Joint Authors
Lee, Hyojin
Chun, Jong A.
Han, Hyun-Hee
Kim, Sung
Source
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-04-17
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
We developed the frost prediction models in spring in Korea using logistic regression and decision tree techniques.
Hit Rate (HR), Probability of Detection (POD), and False Alarm Rate (FAR) from both models were calculated and compared.
Threshold values for the logistic regression models were selected to maximize HR and POD and minimize FAR for each station, and the split for the decision tree models was stopped when change in entropy was relatively small.
Average HR values were 0.92 and 0.91 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively, average POD values were 0.78 and 0.80 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively, and average FAR values were 0.22 and 0.28 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively.
The average numbers of selected explanatory variables were 5.7 and 2.3 for logistic regression and decision tree techniques, respectively.
Fewer explanatory variables can be more appropriate for operational activities to provide a timely warning for the prevention of the frost damages to agricultural crops.
We concluded that the decision tree model can be more useful for the timely warning system.
It is recommended that the models should be improved to reflect local topological features.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Lee, Hyojin& Chun, Jong A.& Han, Hyun-Hee& Kim, Sung. 2016. Prediction of Frost Occurrences Using Statistical Modeling Approaches. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095375
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Lee, Hyojin…[et al.]. Prediction of Frost Occurrences Using Statistical Modeling Approaches. Advances in Meteorology No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095375
American Medical Association (AMA)
Lee, Hyojin& Chun, Jong A.& Han, Hyun-Hee& Kim, Sung. Prediction of Frost Occurrences Using Statistical Modeling Approaches. Advances in Meteorology. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095375
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1095375