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Probabilistic Dressing of a Storm Surge Prediction in the Adriatic Sea
Joint Authors
Source
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-05-30
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Providing a reliable, accurate, and fully informative storm surge forecast is of paramount importance for managing the hazards threatening coastal environments.
Specifically, a reliable probabilistic forecast is crucial for the management of the movable barriers that are planned to become operational in 2018 for the protection of Venice and its lagoon.
However, a probabilistic forecast requires multiple simulations and a considerable computational time, which makes it expensive in real-time applications.
This paper describes the ensemble dressing method, a cheap operational flood prediction system that includes information about the uncertainty of the ensemble members by computing it directly from the meteorological input and the local spread distribution, without requiring multiple forecasts.
Here, a sophisticated error distribution form is developed, which includes the superposition of the uncertainty caused by inaccuracies of the ensemble prediction system, which depends on surge level and lead time, and the uncertainty of the meteorological forcing, which is described using a combination of cross-basin pressure gradients.
The ensemble dressing is validated over a 3-month-long period in the year 2010, during which an exceptional sequence of storm surges occurred.
Results demonstrate that this computationally cheap method can provide an acceptably realistic estimate of the uncertainty.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Mel, R.& Lionello, P.. 2016. Probabilistic Dressing of a Storm Surge Prediction in the Adriatic Sea. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095440
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Mel, R.& Lionello, P.. Probabilistic Dressing of a Storm Surge Prediction in the Adriatic Sea. Advances in Meteorology No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095440
American Medical Association (AMA)
Mel, R.& Lionello, P.. Probabilistic Dressing of a Storm Surge Prediction in the Adriatic Sea. Advances in Meteorology. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095440
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1095440