Climate Change Detection and Annual Extreme Temperature Analysis of the Amur River Basin

Abstract EN

This paper aims to detect climate change points and compare the extreme temperature changes with the average-value changes in the Amur River basin.

The daily air temperatures of 44 stations in the Amur River basin were collected from April 1, 1954, to March 31, 2013.

The change points for annual mean and extreme temperature in 44 individual stations and their average were detected by the Mann-Kendall test, respectively.

The annual mean temperature changed during 1980s in terms of increased mean value and relative stable standard deviation.

The annual maximum temperature from 31 stations mostly located in the central and northwest basin changed significantly, and their change points occurred mainly in 1990s.

For the annual minimum temperature, 32 stations mainly located in the central basin had significant changes.

The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to the postchange point subseries of annual extreme temperature and the parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method.

The 10/50/100-year return levels were estimated by the method of profile likelihood.

For the areas in the central and Northwestern basin, the probability of occurrence of hot extremes increased, while the occurrence probability of cold extremes was decreased in the central basin under climate change.