The Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Horizontal Resolution, Domain Size, and Rain Rate Assimilation: Case Studies with a Convection-Permitting Model

Abstract EN

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) is used to test the sensitivity of heavy precipitation to various model configurations: horizontal resolution, domain size, rain rate assimilation, perturbed physics, and initial condition uncertainties, through a series of convection-permitting simulations of three heavy precipitation (greater than 200 mm day−1) cases in different synoptic backgrounds.

The larger disparity of intensity histograms and rainfall fluctuation caused by different model configurations from their mean and/or control run indicates that heavier precipitation forecasts have larger uncertainty.

A cross-verification exercise is used to quantify the impacts of different model parameters on heavy precipitation.

The dispersion of skill scores with control run used as “truth” shows that the impacts of the model resolution and domain size on the quantitative precipitation forecast are not less than those of perturbed physics and initial field uncertainties in these not intentionally selected heavy precipitation cases.

The result indicates that model resolution and domain size should be considered as part of probabilistic precipitation forecasts and ensemble prediction system design besides the model initial field uncertainty.