Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall: Evaluation of Climate Change Impact
Joint Authors
Yoo, Chulsang
Lee, Jinwook
Ro, Yonghun
Source
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-10, 10 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-05-04
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
10
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
This study evaluates the effect of climate change on daily rainfall, especially on the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall intensity.
Assuming that the mechanism of daily rainfall occurrences follows the first-order Markov chain model, the possible changes in the transition probabilities are estimated by considering the climate change scenarios.
Also, the change of the stationary probabilities of wet and dry day occurrences and finally the change in the number of wet days are derived for the comparison of current (1x CO2) and 2x CO2 conditions.
As a result of this study, the increase or decrease in the mean number of wet days was found to be not enough to explain all of the change in monthly rainfall amounts, so rainfall intensity should also be modified.
The application to the Seoul weather station in Korea shows that about 30% of the total change in monthly rainfall amount can be explained by the change in the number of wet days and the remaining 70% by the change in the rainfall intensity.
That is, as an effect of climate change, the increase in the rainfall intensity could be more significant than the increase in the wet days and, thus, the risk of flood will be much highly increased.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Yoo, Chulsang& Lee, Jinwook& Ro, Yonghun. 2016. Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall: Evaluation of Climate Change Impact. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095650
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Yoo, Chulsang…[et al.]. Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall: Evaluation of Climate Change Impact. Advances in Meteorology No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095650
American Medical Association (AMA)
Yoo, Chulsang& Lee, Jinwook& Ro, Yonghun. Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall: Evaluation of Climate Change Impact. Advances in Meteorology. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095650
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1095650