Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014
Joint Authors
Zhang, Xueliang
Wang, Lei
Lou, Pengwei
Xu, Jiabo
Wang, Kai
Source
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-17, 17 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-10-30
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
17
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China.
Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year.
Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans.
Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis.
We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920–18242] around the summer of 2023.
We also estimate the basic reproduction number R0=2.5524 [95% CI: 2.5129–2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction number R0 in terms of model parameters.
Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Lou, Pengwei& Wang, Lei& Zhang, Xueliang& Xu, Jiabo& Wang, Kai. 2016. Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014. BioMed Research International،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1098006
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Lou, Pengwei…[et al.]. Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014. BioMed Research International No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1098006
American Medical Association (AMA)
Lou, Pengwei& Wang, Lei& Zhang, Xueliang& Xu, Jiabo& Wang, Kai. Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010–2014. BioMed Research International. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-17.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1098006
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1098006