Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China
Joint Authors
Guo, Xiaopeng
Shi, Jiaxing
Ren, Dongfang
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-7, 7 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-10-25
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
7
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Coal plays an important role in China’s energy structure and its price has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012.
Constant low price of coal affected the profits of coal enterprises and the coal use of its downstream firms; the precision of coal price provides a reference for these enterprises making their management strategy.
Based on the historical data of coal price and related factors such as port stocks, sales volume, futures prices, Producer Price Index (PPI), and crude oil price rate from November 2013 to June 2016, this study aims to forecast coal price using vector autoregression (VAR) model and portray the dynamic correlations between coal price and variables by the impulse response function and variance decomposition.
Comparing predicted and actual values, the root mean square error (RMSE) was small which indicated good precision of this model.
Thus this short period prediction can help these enterprises make the right business decisions.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Guo, Xiaopeng& Shi, Jiaxing& Ren, Dongfang. 2016. Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103317
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Guo, Xiaopeng…[et al.]. Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103317
American Medical Association (AMA)
Guo, Xiaopeng& Shi, Jiaxing& Ren, Dongfang. Coal Price Forecasting and Structural Analysis in China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103317
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1103317