Dynamic Discrete GM (1,1) Model and Its Application in the Prediction of Urbanization Conflict Events
Joint Authors
Zhou, Wei
Liu, Ersi
Wang, Qiangqiang
Ge, Xinran
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-10, 10 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-06-13
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
10
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In the empirical researches, the discrete GM (1,1) model is not always fitted well, and sometimes the forecasting error is large.
In order to solve this issue, this study proposes a dynamic discrete GM (1,1) model based on the grey prediction theory and the GM (1,1) model.
In this paper, we use the equal division technology to fit the concavity and convexity of the cumulative sequence and then construct two dynamic average values.
Based on the dynamic average values, we further develop two dynamic discrete GM (1,1) models and provide the gradual heuristics method to draw the initial equal division number and the dichotomy approach to optimize the equal division number.
Finally, based on an empirical analysis of the number of conflict events in the urbanization process in China, we verify that the dynamic discrete GM (1,1) model has higher fitting and prediction accuracy than the GM (1,1) model and the discrete GM (1,1) model, and its prediction result is beneficial to the government for prevention and solution of the urbanization conflict events.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Liu, Ersi& Wang, Qiangqiang& Ge, Xinran& Zhou, Wei. 2016. Dynamic Discrete GM (1,1) Model and Its Application in the Prediction of Urbanization Conflict Events. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103422
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Liu, Ersi…[et al.]. Dynamic Discrete GM (1,1) Model and Its Application in the Prediction of Urbanization Conflict Events. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103422
American Medical Association (AMA)
Liu, Ersi& Wang, Qiangqiang& Ge, Xinran& Zhou, Wei. Dynamic Discrete GM (1,1) Model and Its Application in the Prediction of Urbanization Conflict Events. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-10.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103422
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1103422