SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting
Joint Authors
Herui, Cui
Xu, Peng
Yupei, Mu
Wei, Pengbang
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2016, Issue 2016 (31 Dec. 2016), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2016-10-31
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Seasonal component has been a key factor in time series modeling for medium-term electric load forecasting.
In this paper, a seasonal-ARIMA model is developed, but the parameters of the SAR and the SMA turn out to be quite nonsignificant in most cases during the model order selection.
To address this issue, the hybrid time series model based on the HP filter is utilized to extract the spectrum sequences with different frequencies and analyze interactions among various factors.
Finally, an integrative forecast is made for the electricity consumption from January to November in 2014.
The empirical results demonstrate that the method with HP filter could reduce the relative error caused by the interaction between the trend component and the seasonal component.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Herui, Cui & Wei, Pengbang& Yupei, Mu& Xu, Peng. 2016. SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103641
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Herui, Cui…[et al.]. SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103641
American Medical Association (AMA)
Herui, Cui & Wei, Pengbang& Yupei, Mu& Xu, Peng. SARIMA-Orthogonal Polynomial Curve Fitting Model for Medium-Term Load Forecasting. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103641
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1103641