Application of Chaos Theory in the Prediction of Motorised Traffic Flows on Urban Networks

Abstract EN

In recent times, urban road networks are faced with severe congestion problems as a result of the accelerating demand for mobility.

One of the ways to mitigate the congestion problems on urban traffic road network is by predicting the traffic flow pattern.

Accurate prediction of the dynamics of a highly complex system such as traffic flow requires a robust methodology.

An approach for predicting Motorised Traffic Flow on Urban Road Networks based on Chaos Theory is presented in this paper.

Nonlinear time series modeling techniques were used for the analysis of the traffic flow prediction with emphasis on the technique of computation of the Largest Lyapunov Exponent to aid in the prediction of traffic flow.

The study concludes that algorithms based on the computation of the Lyapunov time seem promising as regards facilitating the control of congestion because of the technique’s effectiveness in predicting the dynamics of complex systems especially traffic flow.