The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images

Joint Authors

Lei, L.
Zhong, Q.
Wang, J.
Shi, L.
Liu, S.

Source

Advances in Astronomy

Issue

Vol. 2019, Issue 2019 (31 Dec. 2019), pp.1-14, 14 p.

Publisher

Hindawi Publishing Corporation

Publication Date

2019-05-13

Country of Publication

Egypt

No. of Pages

14

Main Subjects

Astronomy

Abstract EN

The solar radio flux at 10.7cm (F10.7) is a direct monitor and an important indicator of solar variability, and F10.7 is commonly used in empirical atmospheric models, ionosphere models, etc.

The source regions of F10.7 are mainly in the corona above the active regions, and the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images reflect the coronal thermal structure.

In this paper, an index is defined as PSR based on the intensity values of solar EUV images to represent the coronal contribution to F10.7.

The Spearman correlation coefficient between the observed values of F10.7 and PSR is 0.85 in 304 Å EUV images.

Based on the high correlation, an empirical model is constructed.

Combining the EUV data of SDO/AIA and the twin STEREO/EUVI, solar full-disk EUV images can be generated, and the future 27-day values of PSR can be calculated.

Then, a realistic estimation of F10.7 from 1 to 27 days in advance can be provided by the empirical model.

Compared to the predictive values of F10.7 by the 54th-order autoregressive models in 2012-2013, the error drop-rate of our model is 12.54%, and our method has significant advantages in the upcoming 3 to 27 days’ forecast.

American Psychological Association (APA)

Lei, L.& Zhong, Q.& Wang, J.& Shi, L.& Liu, S.. 2019. The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images. Advances in Astronomy،Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1114412

Modern Language Association (MLA)

Lei, L.…[et al.]. The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images. Advances in Astronomy No. 2019 (2019), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1114412

American Medical Association (AMA)

Lei, L.& Zhong, Q.& Wang, J.& Shi, L.& Liu, S.. The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images. Advances in Astronomy. 2019. Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1114412

Data Type

Journal Articles

Language

English

Notes

Includes bibliographical references

Record ID

BIM-1114412