Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China

Joint Authors

Geng, Xiu
Wang, Fang
Ren, Wei
Hao, Zhixin

Source

Advances in Meteorology

Issue

Vol. 2019, Issue 2019 (31 Dec. 2019), pp.1-12, 12 p.

Publisher

Hindawi Publishing Corporation

Publication Date

2019-06-19

Country of Publication

Egypt

No. of Pages

12

Main Subjects

Physics

Abstract EN

Exploring the impacts of climate change on agriculture is one of important topics with respect to climate change.

We quantitatively examined the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield in Northern China using the Cobb–Douglas production function.

Utilizing time-series data of agricultural production and meteorological observations from 1981 to 2016, the impacts of climatic factors on wheat production were assessed.

It was found that the contribution of climatic factors to winter wheat yield per unit area (WYPA) was 0.762–1.921% in absolute terms.

Growing season average temperature (GSAT) had a negative impact on WYPA for the period of 1981–2016.

A 1% increase in GSAT could lead to a loss of 0.109% of WYPA when the other factors were constant.

While growing season precipitation (GSP) had a positive impact on WYPA, as a 1% increase in GSP could result in 0.186% increase in WYPA, other factors kept constant.

Then, the impacts on WYPA for the period 2021–2050 under two different emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were forecasted.

For the whole study area, GSAT is projected to increase 1.37°C under RCP4.5 and 1.54°C under RCP8.5 for the period 2021–2050, which will lower the average WYPA by 1.75% and 1.97%, respectively.

GSP is tended to increase by 17.31% under RCP4.5 and 22.22% under RCP8.5 and will give a rise of 3.22% and 4.13% in WYPA.

The comprehensive effect of GSAT and GSP will increase WYPA by 1.47% under RCP4.5 and 2.16% under RCP8.5.

American Psychological Association (APA)

Geng, Xiu& Wang, Fang& Ren, Wei& Hao, Zhixin. 2019. Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1118583

Modern Language Association (MLA)

Geng, Xiu…[et al.]. Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China. Advances in Meteorology No. 2019 (2019), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1118583

American Medical Association (AMA)

Geng, Xiu& Wang, Fang& Ren, Wei& Hao, Zhixin. Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China. Advances in Meteorology. 2019. Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1118583

Data Type

Journal Articles

Language

English

Notes

Includes bibliographical references

Record ID

BIM-1118583