Sensitivity Study on the Influence of Parameterization Schemes in WRF_ARW Model on Short- and Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts in the Central Andes of Peru

Abstract EN

A sensitivity study of the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model (WRF, version 3.7) to the use of different microphysics, cumulus, and boundary layer parameterizations for short- and medium-term precipitation forecast is conducted in the Central Andes of Peru.

Lin-Purdué, Thompson, and Morrison microphysics schemes were tested, as well as the Grell–Freitas, Grell 3d, and Betts–Miller–Janjic cumulus parameterizations.

The tested boundary layer schemes were the Yonsei University and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic.

A control configuration was defined, using the Thompson, Grell–Freitas, and Yonsei University schemes, and a set of numerical experiments is made, using different combinations of parameterizations.

Data from 19 local meteorological stations and regional and global gridded were used for verification.

It was concluded that all the configurations overestimate precipitation, but the one using the Morrison microphysical scheme had the best performance, based on the indicators of bias (B) and root mean square error (RMSE).

It is recommended not to use the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme in this region for low resolution domains.

Categorical forecast verification of the occurrence of rainfall as a binary variable showed detection rates higher than 85%.

According to this criterion, the best performing configuration was the combination of Betts–Miller–Janjic and Morrison.

Spatial verification showed that, even if all the configurations overestimated precipitation in some degree, spatial patterns of rainfall match the TRMM and PISCO rainfall data.

Morrison’s microphysics scheme shows the best results, and consequently, this configuration is recommended for short- and medium-term rainfall forecasting tasks in the Central Andes of Peru and particularly in the Mantaro basin.

The results of a special sensitivity experiment showed that the activation or not of cumulus parametrization for the domain of 3 km resolution is not relevant for the precipitation forecast in the study region.