Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Mekong Basin

Abstract EN

Extreme precipitation events can trigger many natural disasters like floods, mudslides, and landslides.

Understanding historical changes in extreme precipitation is critical for disaster prevention and risk assessment.

The Mekong River Basin (MB) is vulnerable to natural disasters related to extreme precipitation.

In the past ten years, the MB has experienced some destructive extreme precipitation events.

Our concern is whether the historical extreme precipitation events in the MB have increased in a warming climate.

This study investigates the spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation in the MB from 1951 to 2015 using a high-quality precipitation product and eight indices of extreme precipitation.

These indices consistently indicate that the trend in extreme precipitation in the Upper Mekong Basin (UMB) is opposite to that in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB).

Extreme precipitation has generally decreased in the UMB but increased in the LMB.

The areas with significant increasing extreme precipitation are mainly located in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia.

The areas with a statistically significant decline in extreme precipitation primarily occur in the Lancang (China’s section of the Mekong river) and Thailand.

Also, the magnitude of changes in extreme precipitation is significantly larger in the LMB than that in the UMB, which potentially increases flooding risks in the LMB.

The findings from this study are useful for guiding disaster-prevention efforts in the MB.