Concurrent, Performance-Based Methodology for Increasing the Accuracy and Certainty of Short-Term Neural Prediction Systems
Joint Authors
Milić, Miljana
Milojković, Jelena
Marković, Ivan
Nikolić, Petar
Source
Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience
Issue
Vol. 2019, Issue 2019 (31 Dec. 2019), pp.1-12, 12 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2019-04-01
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
12
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Accurate prediction of the short time series with highly irregular behavior is a challenging task found in many areas of modern science.
Such data fluctuations are not systematic and hardly predictable.
In recent years, artificial neural networks have widely been exploited for those purposes.
Although it is possible to model nonlinear behavior of short time series by using ANNs, very often they are not able to handle all events equally well.
Therefore, alternative approaches have to be applied.
In this study, a new, concurrent, performance-based methodology that combines best ANN topologies in order to decrease the forecasting errors and increase the forecasting certainty is proposed.
The proposed approach is verified on three different data sets: the Serbian Gross National Income time series, the municipal traffic flow for a particular observation point, and the daily electric load consumption time series.
It is shown that the method can significantly increase the forecasting accuracy of the individual networks, regardless of their topologies, which makes the methodology more applicable.
For quantitative comparison of the accuracy of the proposed methodology with that of similar methodologies, a series of additional forecasting experiments that include a state-of-the-art ARIMA modelling and a combination of ANN and linear regression forecasting have been conducted.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Milić, Miljana& Milojković, Jelena& Marković, Ivan& Nikolić, Petar. 2019. Concurrent, Performance-Based Methodology for Increasing the Accuracy and Certainty of Short-Term Neural Prediction Systems. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience،Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1129674
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Milić, Miljana…[et al.]. Concurrent, Performance-Based Methodology for Increasing the Accuracy and Certainty of Short-Term Neural Prediction Systems. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience No. 2019 (2019), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1129674
American Medical Association (AMA)
Milić, Miljana& Milojković, Jelena& Marković, Ivan& Nikolić, Petar. Concurrent, Performance-Based Methodology for Increasing the Accuracy and Certainty of Short-Term Neural Prediction Systems. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience. 2019. Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1129674
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1129674