Multistep Degradation Tendency Prediction for Aircraft Engines Based on CEEMDAN Permutation Entropy and Improved Grey–Markov Model

Abstract EN

As an essential component and core power source of aircraft, the operational stability of aeroengine has important impact on system safety and reliability.

Accurate degradation tendency prediction on an engine can not only improve its operational stability but also significantly reduce the maintenance costs.

In this paper, a novel forecasting method that combines CEEMDAN permutation entropy and improved Grey–Markov model is proposed to perform multistep degradation tendency prediction of aircraft engines.

In order to accurately quantify the degradation level of engines, a new integrated degradation index (IDI) is innovatively designed by multidimensional sensory data.

And then, because of high speed and excellent performance, CEEMDAN algorithm is specifically employed to decompose the generated IDI series to eliminate the potential influence of stochastic fluctuations.

Aiming at the complexity of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) generated by CEEMDAN, an IMFs reconstruction strategy based on permutation entropy is developed to better characterize the degradation states.

Finally, on the basis of above achievements and for higher forecasting efficiency and accuracy, an improved Grey–Markov model combined with the moving window algorithm, which is unique, is constructed to realize multistep degradation trend prediction of engines.

The proposed method is applied to the degradation tendency prediction of aircraft engines.

The experimental results validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method, and it is more suitable for engineering applications in comparison with other methods.