A Prognostic Nomogram Based on Immune Scores Predicts Postoperative Survival for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract EN

Background.

Increasing research attention has focused on tumor-infiltrating immune cells.

However, the threshold of an immune score for use in predicting overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not defined.

This study aims at exploring the association between immune scores with prognosis and building a clinical nomogram for predicting the survival of HCC patients.

Material and Methods.

A total of 299 patients were enrolled in this study.

Their clinical pathological characteristics and immune scores downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database were analyzed.

Survival differences between different immune score subgroups were compared, and a final nomogram was built using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.

The predictive performance of the nomogram was assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration plot.

Results.

All the patients were divided into three subgroups based on immune scores.

Patients with medium and high immune scores had significantly better OS (HR and 95% CI: 0.417 [0.186-0.937] and 0.299 [0.146-0.616]) and DFS (HR and 95% CI: 0.575 [0.329-1.004] and 0.451 [0.278-0.733], respectively, compared with those with low immune scores.

The C indices for OS and DFS were 0.748 (95% CI, 0.687-0.809) and 0.675 (95% CI, 0.630-0.720), respectively.

A calibration plot used to determine the probability of survival at 3 or 5 years (OS and DFS) showed a significant agreement between nomogram predictions and actual observations.

Conclusions.

Medium and high immune scores are significantly associated with prolonged OS and DFS in HCC patients.

Nomograms built in this study can help doctors and patients assess prognosis and guide treatment.