Analysis of the Transmissibility Change of 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Its Potential Factors in China from 2019 to 2020

Joint Authors

Li, Jiangping
Yang, Huifang
Wang, Ruonan
Zhang, Yuhong
Zhao, Yi
Zhao, Yu

Source

BioMed Research International

Issue

Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-7, 7 p.

Publisher

Hindawi Publishing Corporation

Publication Date

2020-05-19

Country of Publication

Egypt

No. of Pages

7

Main Subjects

Medicine

Abstract EN

Background.

Recently, a large-scale novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) outbreak swept China.

As of Feb.

9, 2020, a total of 40,260 patients have been diagnosed with NCP, and 23,589 patients were suspected to have infected by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which puts forward a great challenge for public health and clinical treatment in China.

Until now, we are in the high-incidence season of NCP.

Thus, the analysis of the transmissibility change of NCP and its potential factors may provide a reliable reference for establishing effective prevention and control strategies.

Method.

By means of the method of calculating the instantaneous basic reproduction number R0t proposed by Cori et al.

(2013), we use R0t to describe the transmissibility change of COVID-19 in China, 2019-2020.

In addition, the Baidu Index (BDI) and Baidu Migration Scale (BMS) were selected to measure the public awareness and the effect of Wuhan lockdown (restricted persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area) strategy, respectively.

The Granger causality test (GCT) was carried out to explore the association between public awareness, the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy, and the transmissibility of COVID-19.

Results.

The estimated averaged basic reproduction number of NCP in China was 3.44 with 95% CI (2.87, 4.0) during Dec.

8, 2019, to Feb.

9, 2020.

The instantaneous basic reproduction numbers (R0t) have two waves and reaching peaks on Jan.

8 and Jan.

27, respectively.

After reaching a peak on Jan.

27, R0t showed a continuous decline trend.

On Feb.

9, R0t has fallen to 1.68 (95% CI: 1.66, 1.7), but it is still larger than 1.

We find a significantly negative association between public awareness and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, with one unit increase in cumulative BDI leading to a decrease of 0.0295% (95% CI: 0.0077, 0.051) R0t.

We also find a significantly negative association between the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, and a one unit decrease in BMS may lead to a drop of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.382, 4.97) R0t.

Conclusion.

The current prevention and control measures have effectively reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19; however, R0t is still larger than the threshold 1.

The results show that the government adopting the Wuhan lockdown strategy plays an important role in restricting the potential infected persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area and avoiding a nationwide spread by quickly controlling the potential infection in Wuhan.

Meanwhile, since Jan.

18, 2020, the people successively accessed COVID-19-related information via the Internet, which may help to effectively implement the government’s prevention and control strategy and contribute to reducing the transmissibility of NCP.

Therefore, ongoing travel restriction and public health awareness remain essential to provide a foundation for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19.

American Psychological Association (APA)

Zhao, Yu& Wang, Ruonan& Li, Jiangping& Zhang, Yuhong& Yang, Huifang& Zhao, Yi. 2020. Analysis of the Transmissibility Change of 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Its Potential Factors in China from 2019 to 2020. BioMed Research International،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1133471

Modern Language Association (MLA)

Zhao, Yu…[et al.]. Analysis of the Transmissibility Change of 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Its Potential Factors in China from 2019 to 2020. BioMed Research International No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1133471

American Medical Association (AMA)

Zhao, Yu& Wang, Ruonan& Li, Jiangping& Zhang, Yuhong& Yang, Huifang& Zhao, Yi. Analysis of the Transmissibility Change of 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Its Potential Factors in China from 2019 to 2020. BioMed Research International. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-7.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1133471

Data Type

Journal Articles

Language

English

Notes

Includes bibliographical references

Record ID

BIM-1133471