![](/images/graphics-bg.png)
Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model
Joint Authors
Corberán-Vallet, A.
Jornet-Sanz, M.
Santonja, Francisco-José
Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto
Source
Issue
Vol. 2018, Issue 2018 (31 Dec. 2018), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2018-03-20
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model in discrete time to understand chickenpox transmission in the Valencian Community, Spain.
During the last decades, different strategies have been introduced in the routine immunization program in order to reduce the impact of this disease, which remains a public health’s great concern.
Under this scenario, a model capable of explaining closely the dynamics of chickenpox under the different vaccination strategies is of utter importance to assess their effectiveness.
The proposed model takes into account both heterogeneous mixing of individuals in the population and the inherent stochasticity in the transmission of the disease.
As shown in a comparative study, these assumptions are fundamental to describe properly the evolution of the disease.
The Bayesian analysis of the model allows us to calculate the posterior distribution of the model parameters and the posterior predictive distribution of chickenpox incidence, which facilitates the computation of point forecasts and prediction intervals.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Corberán-Vallet, A.& Santonja, Francisco-José& Jornet-Sanz, M.& Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto. 2018. Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model. Complexity،Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1133497
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Corberán-Vallet, A.…[et al.]. Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model. Complexity No. 2018 (2018), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1133497
American Medical Association (AMA)
Corberán-Vallet, A.& Santonja, Francisco-José& Jornet-Sanz, M.& Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto. Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model. Complexity. 2018. Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1133497
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1133497