Parameter Estimation and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Turning Point and Ending Time of a Case Study on SIRSQAIR Epidemic Models
Joint Authors
Amiri Mehra, Amir Hossein
Shafieirad, Mohsen
Abbasi, Zohreh
Zamani, Iman
Source
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Issue
Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2020-12-29
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In this paper, the SIR epidemiological model for the COVID-19 with unknown parameters is considered in the first strategy.
Three curves (S, I, and R) are fitted to the real data of South Korea, based on a detailed analysis of the actual data of South Korea, taken from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).
Using the least square method and minimizing the error between the fitted curve and the actual data, unknown parameters, like the transmission rate, recovery rate, and mortality rate, are estimated.
The goodness of fit model is investigated with two criteria (SSE and RMSE), and the uncertainty range of the estimated parameters is also presented.
Also, using the obtained determined model, the possible ending time and the turning point of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States are predicted.
Due to the lack of treatment and vaccine, in the next strategy, a new group called quarantined people is added to the proposed model.
Also, a hidden state, including asymptomatic individuals, which is very common in COVID-19, is considered to make the model more realistic and closer to the real world.
Then, the SIR model is developed into the SQAIR model.
The delay in the recovery of the infected person is also considered as an unknown parameter.
Like the previous steps, the possible ending time and the turning point in the United States are predicted.
The model obtained in each strategy for South Korea is compared with the actual data from KDCA to prove the accuracy of the estimation of the parameters.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Amiri Mehra, Amir Hossein& Shafieirad, Mohsen& Abbasi, Zohreh& Zamani, Iman. 2020. Parameter Estimation and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Turning Point and Ending Time of a Case Study on SIRSQAIR Epidemic Models. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1139334
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Amiri Mehra, Amir Hossein…[et al.]. Parameter Estimation and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Turning Point and Ending Time of a Case Study on SIRSQAIR Epidemic Models. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1139334
American Medical Association (AMA)
Amiri Mehra, Amir Hossein& Shafieirad, Mohsen& Abbasi, Zohreh& Zamani, Iman. Parameter Estimation and Prediction of COVID-19 Epidemic Turning Point and Ending Time of a Case Study on SIRSQAIR Epidemic Models. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1139334
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1139334