Mathematical Modelling of Immune Parameters in the Evolution of Severe Dengue
Joint Authors
Malavige, Neelika
Premaratne, M. K.
Perera, S. S. N.
Jayasinghe, Saroj
Source
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Issue
Vol. 2017, Issue 2017 (31 Dec. 2017), pp.1-9, 9 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2017-02-15
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
9
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Aims.
Predicting the risk of severity at an early stage in an individual patient will be invaluable in preventing morbidity and mortality caused by dengue.
We hypothesized that such predictions are possible by analyzing multiple parameters using mathematical modeling.
Methodology.
Data from 11 adult patients with dengue fever (DF) and 25 patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) were analyzed.
Multivariate statistical analysis was performed to study the characteristics and interactions of parameters using dengue NS1 antigen levels, dengue IgG antibody levels, platelet counts, and lymphocyte counts.
Fuzzy logic fundamentals were used to map the risk of developing severe forms of dengue.
The cumulative effects of the parameters were incorporated using the Hamacher and the OWA operators.
Results.
The operator classified the patients according to the severity level during the time period of 96 hours to 120 hours after the onset of fever.
The accuracy ranged from 53% to 89%.
Conclusion.
The results show a robust mathematical model that explains the evolution from dengue to its serious forms in individual patients.
The model allows prediction of severe cases of dengue which could be useful for optimal management of patients during a dengue outbreak.
Further analysis of the model may also deepen our understanding of the pathways towards severe illness.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Premaratne, M. K.& Perera, S. S. N.& Malavige, Neelika& Jayasinghe, Saroj. 2017. Mathematical Modelling of Immune Parameters in the Evolution of Severe Dengue. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1141991
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Premaratne, M. K.…[et al.]. Mathematical Modelling of Immune Parameters in the Evolution of Severe Dengue. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2017 (2017), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1141991
American Medical Association (AMA)
Premaratne, M. K.& Perera, S. S. N.& Malavige, Neelika& Jayasinghe, Saroj. Mathematical Modelling of Immune Parameters in the Evolution of Severe Dengue. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1141991
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1141991