Analysis of the Strategic Emission-Based Energy Policies of Developing and Developed Economies with Twin Prediction Model

Abstract EN

Upholding sustainability in the use of energies for the increasing global industrial activity has been one of the priority agendas of the global leaders of the West and East.

The projection of different GHGs has thus been the important policy agenda of the economies to justify the positions of their own as well as of others.

Methane is one of the important components of GHGs, and its main sources of generation are the agriculture and livestock activities.

Global diplomacy regarding the curtailment of the GHGs has set the target of reducing the levels of GHGs time to time, but the ground reality regarding the reduction is far away from the targets.

Sometimes, the targets are fixed without the application of scientific methods.

The aim of the present study is to examine sustainability of energy systems through the forecasting of the methane emission and agricultural output of the world’s different income groups up to 2030 using the data for the period 1981–2012.

The work is novel in two senses: the existing studies did not use both the Box–Jenkins and artificial neural network methods, and the present study covers all the major economic groups in the world which is unlike to any existing studies.

Two methods are used for forecasting of the two.

One is the Box–Jenkins method, where linear nature of the two variables is considered and the other is artificial neural network methods where nonlinear nature of the variables is also considered.

The results show that, except the OECD group, all the remaining groups display increasing trends of methane emission, but unquestionably, all the groups display increasing trends of agricultural output, where middle- and upper middle-income groups hold the upper berths.

The forecasted emission is justified to be sustainable in major groups under both methods of estimations since overall growth of agricultural output is greater than that of methane emission.