Revisiting Spatiotemporal Changes in Global Urban Expansion during 1995 to 2015

Abstract EN

This study used global land-use data interpreted from remote sensing images to quantitatively analyze the spatial and temporal changes in global urban expansion over the past 20 years, as well as the source, rate of expansion, and urban growth patterns of newly added urban land (NAUL) around the world.

Some main conclusions included the following.

(1) Globally, NAUL was mainly derived from agriculture, grassland, and forest.

These three types of land use contributed 68.93%, 10.10%, and 9.76%, respectively, to the land sources for NAUL.

(2) Eight countries/regions (CRs)—India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Philippines, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Vietnam—had significant potential for future urban growth and were designated as the “Emerging Urban Growth G8.” Also, Africa will continue to lead global urbanization after Asia.

(3) Global urban expansion was still in a typical stage of edge expansion.

Urban expansion in Oceania was the most aggregated, whereas in Asia, it was the most diffuse.

(4) Apart from African CRs, the urban expansion rate in most CRs was higher than the population urbanization rate, so urbanization does not pose a significant threat to global food security.

In addition, for CR with NAUL>1,000 km2, the level of economic development had a positive effect compact urban development.

This study mapped large-scale urban expansion using unified data, a unified definition of urban boundaries, and over a unified time span.