Determination of Effective Weather Parameters on Rainfed Wheat Yield Using Backward Multiple Linear Regressions Based on Relative Importance Metrics

Abstract EN

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the most imperative crop for man feeding and is planted in numerous countries under rainfed conditions in semiarid zones.

It is necessary for decision-makers and governments to predict the yield of rainfed wheat before harvest and to determine the effect of the major factors on it.

Different methods have been suggested for forecasting yield with various levels of accuracy.

One of these approaches is the statistical regression model, which is simple and applicable for regions with scarce data available.

Since the weather is the most important factor affecting the production of wheat, particularly in rainfed cultivation, regression models using weather parameters are very common.

However, the coefficients of these models are location based and should be determined locally.

Therefore, in this research, backward multiple linear regression (BMLR) technique based on relative importance metrics was used to determine the most important effective weather parameters (11 parameters) on rainfed wheat productions in Fars Province, south of Iran, during 2006–2013.

The influence of each parameter in the final model was analyzed using the values of LMG relative importance metric.

The result indicated that sunshine hours had the biggest LMG (34.73%) and, therefore, was the most effective parameter.

Also, among the other considered parameters, rainy days, minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity with LMG values of 21.97%, 21.69%, and 21.62%, respectively, had the most effects on rainfed wheat yield in the studied area.

All parameters except for the sunshine hours positively affected rainfed wheat yield.

The most important reason for the significance of these parameters can be the prevailing dry and semidry climate in the southern areas of Iran.

The proposed model for determination of weather parameters effects on rainfed wheat could be a great guidance and aid for different stakeholders such as farmers, decision-makers, and governments.