Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity
Joint Authors
Source
Issue
Vol. 2017, Issue 2017 (31 Dec. 2017), pp.1-14, 14 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2017-09-24
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
14
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
We introduce a method for quantifying the predictability of the event that the evolution of a deterministic dynamical system enters a specific subset of state space at a given lead time.
The main idea is to study the distribution of finite-time growth rates of errors in initial conditions along the attractor of the system.
The predictability of an event is measured by comparing error growth rates for initial conditions leading to that event with all possible growth rates.
We illustrate the method by studying the predictability of extreme amplitudes of traveling waves in the Lorenz-96 model.
Our numerical experiments show that the predictability of extremes is affected by several routes to chaos in a different way.
In a scenario involving intermittency due to a periodic attractor disappearing through a saddle-node bifurcation we find that extremes become better predictable as the intensity of the event increases.
However, in a similar intermittency scenario involving the disappearance of a 2-torus attractor we find that extremes are just as predictable as nonextremes.
Finally, we study a scenario which involves a 3-torus attractor in which case the predictability of extremes depends nonmonotonically on the prediction lead time.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Sterk, A. E.& van Kekem, D. L.. 2017. Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity. Complexity،Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1143716
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Sterk, A. E.& van Kekem, D. L.. Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity. Complexity No. 2017 (2017), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1143716
American Medical Association (AMA)
Sterk, A. E.& van Kekem, D. L.. Predictability of Extreme Waves in the Lorenz-96 Model Near Intermittency and Quasi-Periodicity. Complexity. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1143716
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1143716