Demand Prediction of Emergency Supplies under Fuzzy and Missing Partial Data

Abstract EN

An accurate demand prediction of emergency supplies according to disaster information and historical data is an important research subject in emergency rescue.

This study aims at improving supplies demand prediction accuracy under partial data fuzziness and missing.

The main contributions of this study are summarized as follows.

(1) In view that it is difficult for the turning point of the whitenization weight function to determine fuzzy data, two computational formulas solving “core” of fuzzy interval grey numbers were proposed, and the obtained “core” replaced primary fuzzy information so as to reach the goal of transforming uncertain information into certain information.

(2) For partial data missing, the improved grey k-nearest neighbor (GKNN) algorithm was put forward based on grey relation degree and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) algorithm.

Weights were introduced in the filling and logic test conditions were added after filling so that filling results were of higher truthfulness and accuracy.

(3) The preprocessed data are input into the improved algorithm based on the genetic algorithm and BP neural networks (GABP) to obtain the demand prediction model.

Finally the calculation presents that the prediction accuracy and its stability are improved at the five-group comparative tests of calculated examples of actual disasters.

The experiments indicated that the supplies demand prediction model under data fuzziness and missing proposed in this study was of higher prediction accuracy.