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Research on the Value at Risk of Basis for Stock Index Futures Hedging in China Based on Two-State Markov Process and Semiparametric RS-GARCH Model
Joint Authors
Wang, Liang
Xu, Tingjia
Qin, Longhao
Liu, Chenge
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2019, Issue 2019 (31 Dec. 2019), pp.1-15, 15 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2019-06-02
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
15
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
This article aims to investigate the Value at Risk of basis for stock index futures hedging in China.
Since the RS-GARCH model can effectively describe the state transition of variance in VaR and the two-state Markov process can significantly reduce the dimension, this paper constructs the parameter and semiparametric RS-GARCH models based on two-state Markov process.
Furthermore, the logarithm likelihood function method and the kernel estimation with invariable bandwidth method are used for VaR estimation and empirical analysis.
It is found that the three fitting errors (MSE, MAD, and QLIKE) of conditional variance calculated by semiparametric model are significantly smaller than that of the parametric model.
The results of Kupiec backtesting on VaR obtained by the two models show that the failure days of the former are less than or equal to that of the latter, so it can be inferred that the semiparametric RS-GARCH model constructed in this paper is more effective in estimating the Value at Risk of the basis for Chinese stock index futures.
In addition, the mean value and standard deviation of VaR obtained by the semiparametric RS-GARCH model are smaller than that of the parametric method, which can prove that the former model is more conservative in risk estimation.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Wang, Liang& Xu, Tingjia& Qin, Longhao& Liu, Chenge. 2019. Research on the Value at Risk of Basis for Stock Index Futures Hedging in China Based on Two-State Markov Process and Semiparametric RS-GARCH Model. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1146620
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Wang, Liang…[et al.]. Research on the Value at Risk of Basis for Stock Index Futures Hedging in China Based on Two-State Markov Process and Semiparametric RS-GARCH Model. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2019 (2019), pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1146620
American Medical Association (AMA)
Wang, Liang& Xu, Tingjia& Qin, Longhao& Liu, Chenge. Research on the Value at Risk of Basis for Stock Index Futures Hedging in China Based on Two-State Markov Process and Semiparametric RS-GARCH Model. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2019. Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-15.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1146620
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1146620