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Predicting Social Unrest Events with Hidden Markov Models Using GDELT
Joint Authors
Qiao, Fengcai
Wang, Hui
Li, Pei
Zhang, Xin
Ding, Zhaoyun
Cheng, Jiajun
Source
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Issue
Vol. 2017, Issue 2017 (31 Dec. 2017), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2017-05-10
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Proactive handling of social unrest events which are common happenings in both democracies and authoritarian regimes requires that the risk of upcoming social unrest event is continuously assessed.
Most existing approaches comparatively pay little attention to considering the event development stages.
In this paper, we use autocoded events dataset GDELT (Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone) to build a Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) based framework to predict indicators associated with country instability.
The framework utilizes the temporal burst patterns in GDELT event streams to uncover the underlying event development mechanics and formulates the social unrest event prediction as a sequence classification problem based on Bayes decision.
Extensive experiments with data from five countries in Southeast Asia demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework, which outperforms the logistic regression method by 7% to 27% and the baseline method 34% to 62% for various countries.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Qiao, Fengcai& Li, Pei& Zhang, Xin& Ding, Zhaoyun& Cheng, Jiajun& Wang, Hui. 2017. Predicting Social Unrest Events with Hidden Markov Models Using GDELT. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1151782
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Qiao, Fengcai…[et al.]. Predicting Social Unrest Events with Hidden Markov Models Using GDELT. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2017 (2017), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1151782
American Medical Association (AMA)
Qiao, Fengcai& Li, Pei& Zhang, Xin& Ding, Zhaoyun& Cheng, Jiajun& Wang, Hui. Predicting Social Unrest Events with Hidden Markov Models Using GDELT. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1151782
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1151782