Systemic Risk Contagion in Reconstructed Financial Credit Network within Banking and Firm Sectors on DebtRank Based Model

Abstract EN

This paper is dedicated to building a multilayer financial network within banking sectors and firm sectors (nonbanking) on the balance sheet of two types of agents and to assessing systemic risk contagion in the reconstructed network.

Two propagation channels due to interbank credit and counterparty risk via banks’ loans to firms are comprehensively taken into account in systemic risk contagion assessment, which is based on the DebtRank model by analyzing the relative loss of each bank’s equity and the vulnerability of the network.

The computational simulation on how systemic risk contagious process evolves has been conducted, where the possible influential factors of network structure, agent’s initial risk status, external shock ratio, liquidity flow rate, and different layers of the network are considered.

The findings show that the reconstructed network is absolutely vulnerable under the assumed market circumstance without any bailouts and the risk contagion process shows nonlinear behavior.

Specifically, when the average degree of the network and the external shock ratio increases, the risk contagion speed becomes relatively high and the resulting negative effects on the network are more intense.

Besides, risks originating from the failed firms in bank-firm layer should place more negative effect on the financial system than that only happening in interbank market.

Different liquidity rates in financial market could lead to obvious discrepancy of the risk contagion speed and the extent of asset loss.

Additionally, the two layers of the network have diverse influences on risk contagious process resulting in totally different banks’ status in each layer.