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Estimation of Risk Thresholds for a Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on a KDE-Copula-VaR Approach
Joint Authors
Zhang, Shen
Ma, Junwei
Tang, Huiming
Source
Issue
Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2020-06-05
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The Three Gorges Reservoir area, one of the most landslide-prone areas in China, is characterized by widely distributed deep-seated landslides exhibiting creep deformation due to rainfall and reservoir fluctuation.
Thresholds, which are a key component for a reliable landslide early warning system, are still lacking for the prediction of movements of deep-seated reservoir landslides with creep deformation because information about reservoir fluctuation indicators is lacking, uncertainty is ignored, and binary output is provided.
The risk threshold, defined as the tolerance criteria for risks that will lead to action, is an effective measure of the degree of uncertainty.
In the present study, a hybrid approach utilizing kernel density estimation, a copula function, and the value at risk is proposed for the estimation of the risk threshold for the Baishuihe Landslide, a typical deep-seated landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.
Historical observations over approximately 15 years including rainfall, reservoir fluctuation, and landslide velocity were used to extract the risk threshold.
A three-level risk threshold describing the minimum magnitudes of rainfall and reservoir fluctuation for changing the landslide movement state under three confidence levels was developed.
A three-level risk response procedure, including risk responses in yellow alert, orange alert, and red alert, is proposed for risk management.
Given its successful application, the present approach can be used to estimate the risk threshold for deep-seated landslides.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Zhang, Shen& Ma, Junwei& Tang, Huiming. 2020. Estimation of Risk Thresholds for a Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on a KDE-Copula-VaR Approach. Geofluids،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1165231
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Zhang, Shen…[et al.]. Estimation of Risk Thresholds for a Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on a KDE-Copula-VaR Approach. Geofluids No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1165231
American Medical Association (AMA)
Zhang, Shen& Ma, Junwei& Tang, Huiming. Estimation of Risk Thresholds for a Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on a KDE-Copula-VaR Approach. Geofluids. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1165231
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1165231