The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease
Joint Authors
Nkansah-Gyekye, Yaw
Luboobi, Livingstone S.
Ngeleja, Rigobert C.
Source
International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
Issue
Vol. 2017, Issue 2017 (31 Dec. 2017), pp.1-25, 25 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2017-08-10
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
25
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Plague is a historic disease which is also known to be the most devastating disease that ever occurred in human history, caused by gram-negative bacteria known as Yersinia pestis.
The disease is mostly affected by variations of weather conditions as it disturbs the normal behavior of main plague disease transmission agents, namely, human beings, rodents, fleas, and pathogens, in the environment.
This in turn changes the way they interact with each other and ultimately leads to a periodic transmission of plague disease.
In this paper, we formulate a periodic epidemic model system by incorporating seasonal transmission rate in order to study the effect of seasonal weather variation on the dynamics of plague disease.
We compute the basic reproduction number of a proposed model.
We then use numerical simulation to illustrate the effect of different weather dependent parameters on the basic reproduction number.
We are able to deduce that infection rate, progression rates from primary forms of plague disease to more severe forms of plague disease, and the infectious flea abundance affect, to a large extent, the number of bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague infective agents.
We recommend that it is more reasonable to consider these factors that have been shown to have a significant effect on RT for effective control strategies.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Ngeleja, Rigobert C.& Luboobi, Livingstone S.& Nkansah-Gyekye, Yaw. 2017. The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences،Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-25.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1167741
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Ngeleja, Rigobert C.…[et al.]. The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences No. 2017 (2017), pp.1-25.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1167741
American Medical Association (AMA)
Ngeleja, Rigobert C.& Luboobi, Livingstone S.& Nkansah-Gyekye, Yaw. The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-25.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1167741
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1167741