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Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Dysentery Diarrhea Epidemic Model
Joint Authors
Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis
Theuri, David Mwangi
Makinde, Oluwole Daniel
Source
Journal of Applied Mathematics
Issue
Vol. 2019, Issue 2019 (31 Dec. 2019), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2019-02-12
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In this paper, dysentery diarrhea deterministic compartmental model is proposed.
The local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained using the stability theory of differential equations.
Numerical simulation of the system shows that the backward bifurcation of the endemic equilibrium exists for R0>1.
The system is formulated as a standard nonlinear least squares problem to estimate the parameters.
The estimated reproduction number, based on the dysentery diarrhea disease data for Ethiopia in 2017, is R0=1.1208.
This suggests that elimination of the dysentery disease from Ethiopia is not practical.
A graphical method is used to validate the model.
Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the importance of model parameters in the disease dynamics.
It is found out that the reproduction number is the most sensitive to the effective transmission rate of dysentery diarrhea (βh).
It is also demonstrated that control of the effective transmission rate is essential to stop the spreading of the disease.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis& Makinde, Oluwole Daniel& Theuri, David Mwangi. 2019. Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Dysentery Diarrhea Epidemic Model. Journal of Applied Mathematics،Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1168941
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis…[et al.]. Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Dysentery Diarrhea Epidemic Model. Journal of Applied Mathematics No. 2019 (2019), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1168941
American Medical Association (AMA)
Berhe, Hailay Weldegiorgis& Makinde, Oluwole Daniel& Theuri, David Mwangi. Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Dysentery Diarrhea Epidemic Model. Journal of Applied Mathematics. 2019. Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1168941
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1168941