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Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China
Joint Authors
Li, Shunxi
Chen, Hang
Zhang, Guofang
Source
Journal of Advanced Transportation
Issue
Vol. 2017, Issue 2017 (31 Dec. 2017), pp.1-6, 6 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2017-08-07
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
6
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
The potential demand of battery electric vehicle (BEV) is the base of the decision-making to the government policy formulation, enterprise manufacture capacity expansion, and charging infrastructure construction.
How to predict the future amount of BEV accurately is very important to the development of BEV both in practice and in theory.
The present paper tries to compare the short-term accuracy of a proposed modified Bass model and Lotka-Volterra (LV) model, by taking China’s BEV development as the case study.
Using the statistics data of China’s BEV amount of 21 months from Jan 2015 to Sep 2016, we compare the simulation accuracy based on the value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and discuss the forecasting capacity of the two models according to China’s government expectation.
According to the MAPE value, the two models have good prediction accuracy, but the Bass model is more accurate than LV model.
Bass model has only one dimension and focuses on the diffusion trend, while LV model has two dimensions and mainly describes the relationship and competing process between the two populations.
In future research, the forecasting advantages of Bass model and LV model should be combined to get more accurate predicting effect.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Li, Shunxi& Chen, Hang& Zhang, Guofang. 2017. Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China. Journal of Advanced Transportation،Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170965
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Li, Shunxi…[et al.]. Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China. Journal of Advanced Transportation No. 2017 (2017), pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170965
American Medical Association (AMA)
Li, Shunxi& Chen, Hang& Zhang, Guofang. Comparison of the Short-Term Forecasting Accuracy on Battery Electric Vehicle between Modified Bass and Lotka-Volterra Model: A Case Study of China. Journal of Advanced Transportation. 2017. Vol. 2017, no. 2017, pp.1-6.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1170965
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1170965