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On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya
Joint Authors
Weke, Patrick
Rono, Antony
Ogutu, Carolyne
Source
International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
Issue
Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-8, 8 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2020-04-25
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Kenyan communities are exposed to natural disasters by an amalgamation of factors such as poverty, aridity, and settlements in areas susceptible to natural disasters or in areas with poor infrastructure.
This is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change.
In an attempt to explain some of these variabilities, we model the extreme damages from natural disasters in Kenya by developing a compound distribution that takes into account both the frequency and the severity of the extreme events.
The resulting distribution is based on a threshold model and compound extreme value distribution.
For frequency of events exceeding a threshold of 150,000, we found that it follows a negative binomial distribution, while severity of exceedance follows a generalized Pareto distribution.
This distribution fits the data well and is found to be a better model for natural disasters in Kenya than the traditional extreme value threshold model.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Rono, Antony& Ogutu, Carolyne& Weke, Patrick. 2020. On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1172724
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Rono, Antony…[et al.]. On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1172724
American Medical Association (AMA)
Rono, Antony& Ogutu, Carolyne& Weke, Patrick. On Compound Distributions for Natural Disaster Modelling in Kenya. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1172724
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1172724