A Simulation Study on Hypothetical Ebola Virus Transmission in India Using Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM)‎: A Way towards Precision Public Health

Abstract EN

Background.

Precision public health is a state-of-the-art concept in public health research and its application in health care.

Application of information technology in field of epidemiology paves the way to its transformation to digital epidemiology.

A geospatial epidemiological model was simulated to estimate the spread of Ebola virus disease after a hypothetical outbreak in India.

Methods.

It was a simulation study based on SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) compartmental model.

Simulation was done in Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM).

Epidemiological profile of Ebola virus, that transmitted throughout the Sierra Leon in 2014–2016, was fitted into the SEIR deterministic compartment model designed for India.

Result.

Spatiotemporal distribution of EVD exposed, infectious, and recovered population at 4-month interval represented by different figures.

It is estimated that if no intervention is taken to stop the spread, within 2 years, almost half of the country will be effected by EVD and cumulative number of exposed individuals, infectious persons, and deaths will be 106947760, 30651674, and 18391005, respectively.

Conclusion.

Precision public health may play the key role to achieve the health related targets in the Sustainable Development Goals.

Policy makers, public health specialists, and data scientists need to put their hands together to make precision public health a reality.