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Traffic Incident Clearance Time Prediction and Influencing Factor Analysis Using Extreme Gradient Boosting Model
Joint Authors
Tang, Jinjun
Han, Chunyang
Zheng, Lanlan
Liu, Fang
Cai, Jianming
Source
Journal of Advanced Transportation
Issue
Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-12, 12 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2020-06-09
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
12
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Accurate prediction and reliable significant factor analysis of incident clearance time are two main objects of traffic incident management (TIM) system, as it could help to relieve traffic congestion caused by traffic incidents.
This study applies the extreme gradient boosting machine algorithm (XGBoost) to predict incident clearance time on freeway and analyze the significant factors of clearance time.
The XGBoost integrates the superiority of statistical and machine learning methods, which can flexibly deal with the nonlinear data in high-dimensional space and quantify the relative importance of the explanatory variables.
The data collected from the Washington Incident Tracking System in 2011 are used in this research.
To investigate the potential philosophy hidden in data, K-means is chosen to cluster the data into two clusters.
The XGBoost is built for each cluster.
Bayesian optimization is used to optimize the parameters of XGBoost, and the MAPE is considered as the predictive indicator to evaluate the prediction performance.
A comparative study confirms that the XGBoost outperforms other models.
In addition, response time, AADT (annual average daily traffic), incident type, and lane closure type are identified as the significant explanatory variables for clearance time.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Tang, Jinjun& Zheng, Lanlan& Han, Chunyang& Liu, Fang& Cai, Jianming. 2020. Traffic Incident Clearance Time Prediction and Influencing Factor Analysis Using Extreme Gradient Boosting Model. Journal of Advanced Transportation،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1175868
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Tang, Jinjun…[et al.]. Traffic Incident Clearance Time Prediction and Influencing Factor Analysis Using Extreme Gradient Boosting Model. Journal of Advanced Transportation No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1175868
American Medical Association (AMA)
Tang, Jinjun& Zheng, Lanlan& Han, Chunyang& Liu, Fang& Cai, Jianming. Traffic Incident Clearance Time Prediction and Influencing Factor Analysis Using Extreme Gradient Boosting Model. Journal of Advanced Transportation. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1175868
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1175868