A Simultaneous Safety Analysis of Crash Frequency and Severity for Highway-Rail Grade Crossings: The Competing Risks Method

Abstract EN

This paper proposes a mathematical model, the competing risks method, to investigate highway-rail grade crossing (HRGC) crash frequency and crash severity simultaneously over a 30-year period.

The proposed competing risks model is a special type of survival analysis to accommodate the competing nature of multiple outcomes from the same event of interest; in this case, the competing multiple outcomes are crash severities, while event of interest is crash occurrence.

Knowledge-gain-based benefits to be discovered through the application of this model and 30-year dataset are as follows: (1) a straightforward and integrated one-step estimation process that considers both crash frequency and severity likelihood in the same model, so direct hazard ranking considering both crash frequency and severity likelihood is possible; (2) interpretative effects of identified covariates from both the direction and magnitude perspectives; and (3) the long-term cumulative effect of contributors with the cumulative incidence function.