Application of Finite Mixture of Logistic Regression for Heterogeneous Merging Behavior Analysis

Abstract EN

A finite mixture of logistic regression model (FMLR) was applied to analyze the heterogeneity within the merging driver population.

This model can automatically provide useful hidden information about the characteristics of the driver population.

EM algorithm and Newton-Raphson algorithm were used to estimate the parameters.

To accomplish the objective of this study, the FMLR model was applied to a trajectory dataset extracted from the NGSIM dataset and a 2-component FMLR model was identified.

The important findings can be summarized as follows: The studied drivers can be classified into two components.

One is called Risk-Rejecting Drivers.

These drivers are consistent with previous studies and primarily merge in as soon as possible and have a distinct preference for the large gaps.

The other is the Risk-Taking Drivers that are much less sensitive to the gap size and pay more attention to surrounding traffic conditions such as the speed of front vehicle in the auxiliary lane and lead space gap between the merging vehicle and its leading vehicles in the auxiliary lane.

Risk-Taking Drivers use the auxiliary lane to get to the further downstream or less congested area of the main lane.

The proposed model can also produce more precise predicting accuracy than logistic regression model.