Nomogram for Predicting Recurrence-Free Survival in Chinese Women with Endometrial Cancer after Initial Therapy: External Validation

Abstract EN

This study aimed at developing an available recurrence-free survival (RFS) model of endometrial cancer (EC) for accurate and individualized prognosis assessment.

A training cohort of 520 women with EC who underwent initial surgical treatment and an external validation cohort of 445 eligible EC patients from 2006 to 2016 were analyzed retrospectively.

Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to develop nomograms for predicting recurrence.

The concordance index (C-index) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated to determine the discrimination of RFS prognostic scoring systems.

Calibration plots were generated to examine the performance characteristics of the predictive nomograms.

Regression analysis revealed that an advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, histological grade 3, primary tumor diameter ≥2 cm, and positive peritoneal cytology were independent prognostic factors for RFS in EC in the training set.

The nomograms estimated RFS according to these four variables, with a C-index of 0.860, which was superior to that of FIGO stage (2009 criteria), at 0.809 (P=0.034), in the training cohort.

Encouragingly, consistent results were observed in the validation set, with a C-index of 0.875 for the nomogram and a C-index of 0.833 for the FIGO staging (P=0.0137).

Furthermore, the calibrations of the nomograms predicting 3- and 5-year RFS strongly corresponded to the actual survival outcome.

In conclusion, this study developed an available nomogram with effective external validation and relatively appreciable discrimination and conformity for the accurate assessment of 3- and 5-year RFS in Chinese women with EC.