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Modelling the Periodic Outbreak of Measles in Mainland China
Joint Authors
Ruan, Xiaoe
Xue, Yuyi
Xiao, Yanni
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2020-03-20
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In mainland China, measles infection reached the lowest level in 2012 but resurged again after that with a seasonally fluctuating pattern.
To investigate the phenomenon of periodic outbreak and identify the crucial parameters that play in the transmission dynamics of measles, we formulate a mathematical model incorporating periodic transmission rate and asymptomatic infection with waning immunity.
We define the basic reproduction number as the threshold value to govern whether measles infection dies out or not.
Fitting the reported measles cases from 2013 to 2016 to our proposed model, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 with immunization to be 1.0077.
From numerical simulations, we conclude asymptomatic infection does not cause much new infections and the key parameters affecting the transmission of measles are vaccination rate, transmission rate, and recovery rate, which suggests the public to enhance vaccination and protection measures to reduce effective contacts between susceptible and infective individuals and treat infected individuals timely.
To minimize the number of infected individuals at a minimal cost, we formulate an optimal control system to design optimal control strategies.
Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of optimal control strategies and recommend us to implement the control strategies as soon as possible.
In particular, enhancing vaccination is especially effective in lowering the initial outbreak and making disease recurrence less likely.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Xue, Yuyi& Ruan, Xiaoe& Xiao, Yanni. 2020. Modelling the Periodic Outbreak of Measles in Mainland China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1194546
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Xue, Yuyi…[et al.]. Modelling the Periodic Outbreak of Measles in Mainland China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1194546
American Medical Association (AMA)
Xue, Yuyi& Ruan, Xiaoe& Xiao, Yanni. Modelling the Periodic Outbreak of Measles in Mainland China. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1194546
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1194546