An Improved Prediction Model Combining Inverse Exponential Smoothing and Markov Chain
Joint Authors
Niu, Tong
Zhang, Bo
Yang, Bofan
Wei, Shengjun
Zhang, Lin
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2020, Issue 2020 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.1-11, 11 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2020-09-28
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
11
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
On the basis of the triple exponential smoothing prediction model, this paper introduces the reverse prediction idea and establishes the reverse triple exponential smoothing model by setting parameters such as threshold value and iteration times and reasonably correcting its initial value.
This method can effectively reduce the error of early prediction value.
At the same time, aiming at the problem that the predicting advantage of the reverse triple exponential smoothing model weakens in the later period, Markov theory is introduced to correct its error value, and an improved prediction model combining inverse exponential smoothing and Markov chain is further established.
The improved model combines the advantages of index model trend prediction and Markov fluctuation prediction, and the prediction accuracy and stability of the model are significantly improved through case tests.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Niu, Tong& Zhang, Lin& Zhang, Bo& Yang, Bofan& Wei, Shengjun. 2020. An Improved Prediction Model Combining Inverse Exponential Smoothing and Markov Chain. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1196598
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Niu, Tong…[et al.]. An Improved Prediction Model Combining Inverse Exponential Smoothing and Markov Chain. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1196598
American Medical Association (AMA)
Niu, Tong& Zhang, Lin& Zhang, Bo& Yang, Bofan& Wei, Shengjun. An Improved Prediction Model Combining Inverse Exponential Smoothing and Markov Chain. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1196598
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1196598