Novel Prediction Method for Highway Distresses in Permafrost Regions Based on Qualitative Reasoning of Multidimensional and Multirules Cloud Model

Abstract EN

Highway in permafrost regions has numerous diseases during operation, due to instability and degradation of permafrost.

To predict distress sections of a newly built highway in permafrost regions, we proposed a new method based on the multidimensional and multirules reasoning cloud model.

Herein, the evaluation parameters affecting the highway distresses in permafrost regions, i.e., annual average ground temperature, ice content, and frozen-heave factor, were as the data input, whereas the distress degree was as the data output; all of the aforementioned were described by a cloud model.

Based on the analysis of distress large data, inference rules and a cloud reasoning prediction model were established.

Subsequently, distress degrees of the 10 equidistance highway sections were predicted on the Qinghai-Tibet highway by using the cloud model, and actual distress degree and predicted distress degree were compared by using the regression analysis algorithm.

The results showed that the relevance between the actual distress degree and the predicted distress degree was 0.738.

The study provides a feasible and effective method to predict the potential distress sections of the newly built highway and better plan infrastructure project on permafrost regions.