A Novel Discrete Grey Model and Its Application

Abstract EN

This paper aims to further increase the prediction accuracy of the grey model based on the existing discrete grey model, DGM(1,1).

Herein, we begin by studying the connection between forecasts and the first entry of the original series.

The results comprehensively show that the forecasts are independent of the first entry in the original series.

On this basis, an effective method of inserting an arbitrary number in front of the first item of the original series to extract messages is applied to produce a novel grey model, which is abbreviated as FDGM(1,1) for simplicity.

Incidentally, the proposed model can even forecast future data using only three historical data.

To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, two classical examples of the tensile strength and life of the product are employed in this paper.

The numerical results indicate that FDGM(1,1) has a better prediction performance than most commonly used grey models.