Short-Term Air Quality Prediction Based on Fractional Grey Linear Regression and Support Vector Machine

Abstract EN

To predict the daily air pollutants, the fractional multivariable model is established.

The hybrid model of the grey multivariable regression model with fractional order accumulation model (FGM(0, m)) and support vector regression model (SVR) is used to predict the air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, and NO2) from December 31, 2018, to January 3, 2019, in Shijiazhuang and Chongqing.

The absolute percentage errors (APEs) are used to determine the weights of the FGM(0, m) and SVR.

Meanwhile, the Holt–Winters model is used to predict the air quality pollutants for the same location and period.

When the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is 0%–20%, it indicates that the model has good accuracy of fitting and prediction.

The MAPE of the hybrid model is less than 20%.

It is shown that except for the PM2.5 concentration prediction in Shijiazhuang (13.7%), the MAPE between the forecasting and actual values of the three air pollutants in Shijiazhuang and Chongqing was less than 10%.