Investment Risk Assessment of Dispersed Wind Power in Low Wind Speed Area Using a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Environment

Abstract EN

Reducing the phenomenon of wind curtailment is essential to improve the level of wind power consumption.

Wind power development in China has shifted to southeast region and dispersed wind power has developed rapidly and gradually become the new main force.

However, various obstacles limit the smooth progress of dispersed wind power in low wind speed area.

An important point is the absence of targeted risk analysis and evaluation methods.

Therefore, the principal contribution of this paper is to find out the critical risk factors of such projects and propose the risk assessment model.

First, 18 critical risk factors are identified using the constructed five-dimensional risk analysis model.

Second, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set with credibility is utilized to collect evaluation information on one hand and to improve the multicriteria decision-making methods involved on the other hand.

Third, the risk evaluation and ranking for 10 provinces that mainly develop dispersed wind power is carried out.

The evaluation results indicate that the risk level of dispersed wind power projects is “Relatively Low” in most study provinces and the risk levels of Guangdong and Fujian are higher.

It is worth noting that the consistency between the evaluation results and the distribution of wind resources can be used to guide the formulation of stimulus policies.

Besides, the ranking results show some preference for investment choice.

Finally, dual sensitivity analysis tests the stability of the model and shows the ranking results under different decision preferences.

Scenario analysis gives the possible risk scenarios and evaluation results in the future.

This study can provide insightful inspiration to wind power investors, risk management practitioners, and policymakers.